Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.546597 2.714236 2.892985 3.098747 3.330313 3.584353 3.886193
2025-04-06 2.278766 2.500974 2.750257 3.053879 3.418297 3.847836 4.402266
2025-04-13 2.080099 2.326191 2.611570 2.972698 3.426273 3.990061 4.766535
2025-04-20 1.985386 2.256675 2.580563 3.004818 3.560745 4.288301 5.358827
2025-04-27 1.922463 2.216362 2.576371 3.062903 3.726145 4.638561 6.074581
2025-05-04 1.867860 2.179959 2.570932 3.114261 3.882310 4.990298 6.855590
2025-05-11 1.790189 2.108028 2.512803 3.087177 3.921994 5.172323 7.397670
2025-05-18 1.723860 2.046101 2.462584 3.064901 3.963197 5.357534 7.979973
2025-05-25 1.662940 1.987502 2.412452 3.037481 3.991664 5.522669 8.559672
2025-06-01 1.607256 1.932778 2.363937 3.007839 4.012108 5.674408 9.147644
2025-06-08 1.567650 1.897470 2.339742 3.011201 4.083345 5.921140 10.001659
2025-06-15 1.542771 1.880668 2.339936 3.050068 4.214503 6.293257 11.263949
2025-06-22 1.493098 1.828409 2.288144 3.007507 4.207984 6.410866 11.962555
2025-06-29 1.446238 1.778300 2.237180 2.963045 4.194195 6.512655 12.663530
2025-07-06 1.392935 1.717308 2.167855 2.885614 4.116117 6.473909 12.955049
2025-07-13 1.373769 1.703504 2.166651 2.916135 4.232142 6.855560 14.702539
2025-07-20 1.362537 1.700279 2.180535 2.971350 4.398041 7.376441 17.276102
2025-07-27 1.350140 1.694735 2.190395 3.020143 4.556708 7.915547 20.424921
2025-08-03 1.319642 1.661875 2.157304 2.994415 4.567971 8.101881 22.237597
2025-08-10 1.291941 1.632211 2.127918 2.973247 4.586214 8.309895 24.394755
2025-08-17 1.264515 1.602122 2.096729 2.947186 4.592123 8.487632 26.626270
2025-08-24 1.237953 1.572556 2.065292 2.919003 4.591192 8.647776 29.005159
2025-08-31 1.219927 1.555096 2.052114 2.922200 4.656250 9.007411 33.439496